2019 Market Outlook

February 2019

Opportunities in the late stage bull market


Although growth is slowing as the economic cycle matures, Citi analysts emphasize that this is not the start of a downturn.

Citi analysts still expect global growth of 3.1% in 2019 paired with inflation slowing its rate of increase from 2.4% in 2019 to 2.5% in 2020.

To recap the past 12 months global equities rose 5.1 per cent in the first three quarters of 2018, tumbling -7.3 per cent in October in reaction to an IMF global growth downgrade, increase in US-China tensions, rise in 10 year US Treasury yields and relative calm in the lead-up to the US midterm elections. Global equity markets then recovered 1.2 per cent in November.

Global growth is being supported on a number of fronts. In the US tightening but still accommodative interest rates continue to stimulate the economy. In Europe domestic demand is increasing and in China the government continues to take supportive measures to stimulate growth.

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